2014:潜在金融危机的演进路线示意图
发表时间:2014年01月08日
美国总统奥巴马最近宣称,当今的美国金融体系比雷曼兄弟倒闭前安全很多。他的这个说法到底准不准确?2014年就能得到验证。以下是金融危机可能如何发生。
失业率下降快于预期(美国失业率已经先于计划,降至7%).。. |
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Faced with a faster drop in the unemployment rate than expected (we are already at 7% ahead of schedule) .。. |
... 美联储(Federal Reserve)将被迫缩减经济刺激政策.。. |
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... the Federal Reserve will be forced to back off its stimulus efforts .。. |
... 结果造成利率上升,不到一个月,利率上升了3个百分点。 |
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... causing interest rates to spike, up three percentage points in less than a month。 |
于是,持有大量债券的美国五大银行将损失550亿美元。光这些,不会让我们陷入金融危机。比如,身为《财富》美国500强公司的美国银行(Bank of America)的资本充足率将仍将达到7.4%,略低于7.5%的法定要求。 |
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The nations five largest banks, which hold lots of bonds, will lose $55 billion. That alone wouldnt push us into a financial crisis. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), for instance, would still have a capital ratio of 7.4%, just south of the required 7.5%。 |
但你知道会发生什么吗?会有一家大型信用对冲基金倒闭。这家对冲基金可能使用美国国债作为抵押品,通过到期回购交易对担保债务凭证(CDO)进行了杠杆投资。(没错,华尔街直到现在仍然在从事这类交易。) |
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But you know what will? The blow up of a large credit hedge fund, which had made a leveraged bet on collateralized debt obligations through repo-to-maturity trades using Treasuries as collateral. (Yes, Wall Street still does those deals。) |
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Already nervous investors will run from financial markets .。. |
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... causing a credit crunch。 |
于是,银行为了覆盖近期资本损失将被迫转向美联储寻求帮助。华尔街将此称为短期融资,别人则称之为救助。这种做法会起作用,但会让在过去一年将银行股价推高30%的投资者大感意外。明年肯定不会有出现这么好的行情了。(财富中文网) |
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Banks nursing their recent capital losses will be forced to turn to the Fed for what Wall Street calls short-term funding and the rest of us call a bailout. It will work, but all of it will come as a surprise to investors who have bid bank stocks up 30% in the past year. Next year wont be as good。 |
稿件来源:财富中文网
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